CoreLogic’s recent property pulse revealed that while total listings across capital cities remain elevated compared to past years, the market is recording fewer new listings.
But what does this say about the property market in general?
According to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher, the lower number of listings is likely due to potential vendors delaying to put their properties on sale because of reduced demand for housing. Total listings in softer markets have surged over recent years, as the homes already for sale are not being sold.
This implies that the market is undergoing a slump. In the report, Kusher underlined the idea by showing detailed listing movements across each of the city in the past seven years.
Listings across the combined capital cities over the 28 days to 22 July this year saw 21,849 new properties listed for sale (down by 6.7% compared to 2017), and 108,436 total properties listed, up by 7.2%. Fewer new homes, more total homes for sale.
For reference, new listings and total listings are both are lower and higher, respectively, than they’ve been during the month of June going all the way back to 2012.
Examining some of the major cities in the country, the report noted that there were 5,601 new properties listed for sale over the past 28 days in Sydney. This was down 13.1% from a year ago, but slightly higher than the figure in 2016.
All in all, there were 26,103 properties listed for sale, which was 21.7% higher than last year and the most for sale since this time in 2012, when CoreLogic saw 29,366 properties on the market.
Melbourne, meanwhile, saw 6,821 new properties listed for sale and 30,029 total properties for sale during the same period of time. Compared to 2017, new listings are 4.8% lower and dipping at the lowest level for this time of year since 2014. Further, total listings in the city are 10.5% higher than a year ago and are also the highest they’ve been since 2014.
Finally, Brisbane saw 3,789 new properties listed for sale, which is 3.2% lower than a year ago. This is also the fewest new listings since this time of year in 2012. There are 19,738 total properties listed for sale, up by 1.2% compared to 2017 and the highest at this time of year since 2012
Kusher further observed that the listings data tends to be highly seasonal. He stated that listings significantly decline during Christmas and New Year and then rebound through autumn. They also usually drop during the Winter and surge coming into Spring, then remain elevated towards the end of the year.
“The real litmus test for the housing market will be what happens in Spring, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. If, as usually occurs, new listings ramp-up and a lot more stock become available for sale this could create further downwards pressure on values. Don’t be surprised though if with tightened credit and an already weakening housing market that Spring this year is a lot more muted than what we’ve seen over recent years,” he concluded.
Related stories:
Perth's Property Market Restrained In July
How Australia's Home Values Surged Over The Decade
