The housing market appears to be defying the impacts of the recent rate hikes and at this level, prices could achieve a new peak in less than a year, according to PropTrack’s latest report.
Based on the current trajectory of house prices, they could potentially return to positive annual three-month growth by July and surpass the peak reached in March 2022 by the start of 2024, when they are expected to increase by 4%.
PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said after five months of price growth, stronger market conditions are becoming more widespread in 2023.
“Housing demand is stronger, likely bolstered by the surge in net overseas migration, as well as very tight rental markets,” she said.
“Given limited new stock is coming to market, buyer interest is being concentrated, which is underpinning home prices and offsetting the downward pressure from interest rate rises.”
Of all capital cities, Adelaide and Perth bucked the falling price trend seen for much of last year.
In fact, both capitals saw home prices climb to fresh peaks in May and are up 2.6% and 3.1% so far this year, respectively.
“Home prices in Adelaide have hit fresh price peaks for the past eight consecutive months — if growth is maintained, both cities will continue to hit new price peaks throughout 2023,” Ms Creagh said.
The capital city which is bound to surpass its peak soon is Brisbane — home prices in the city are up 2% so far this year and could be on track to return to positive annual growth by July 2023, surpassing their prior peak by September 2023
Sydney is also expected to reach a new peak this year. Prices in Sydney increased 3% from the low achieved in November 2022.
If Sydney prices continue to grow at the same pace as over the past quarter, they could return to positive annual growth by the end of June and surpass their prior peak by December 2023.
Below are the projected timeframes detailing when capital cities are bound to return to positive annual growth and reach a new peak in prices:
|
Region |
Previous Peak |
Potential return to positive annual growth |
Next Potential Peak |
|
Sydney |
February 2022 |
June 2023 |
December 2023 |
|
Melbourne |
March 2022 |
October 2023 |
August 2025 |
|
Brisbane |
April 2022 |
July 2023 |
September 2023 |
|
Adelaide |
At peak |
At peak |
At peak |
|
Perth |
At peak |
At peak |
At peak |
|
Hobart |
March 2022 |
March 2024 |
April 2030 |
|
Darwin |
May 2022 |
August 2023 |
January 2025 |
|
ACT |
March 2022 |
October 2023 |
November 2024 |
|
Capital Cities |
March 2022 |
July 2023 |
January 2024 |
|
National |
March 2022 |
July 2023 |
January 2024 |
Ms Creagh said stronger market conditions that improve seller confidence and spark an increase in supply could potentially weigh on the pace of price rises ahead. Further rate rises could also take some steam out off the market.
“Though, interest rates are closer to their peak than not, and the shock of rate rises has lessened,” she said.
“Population growth, tight rental market conditions and a housing shortfall are also expected to remain — if stronger demand holds up against the expected slowing of the economy, most capital city markets would return to positive annual price growth in the coming months.”
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